Very limited analysis this week.  Cog Hill is a long standing PGA venue but was redone considerably after the 2007 event and in the two years (2009/2010) since it re-opened for the BMW Championship it is clearly more difficult.  Only 42 finishing scores (of 140 possible) were under par and 5 guys accomplished that feat both years - Furyk, Kuchar, Z. Johnson, Villegas, and Marc Leishman (who actually has the best aggregate other than Tiger’s ridiculous 19-under in 2009 at 14-under par total).

Only two weeks left in the PGA season and with a limited field I’m going relatively small this week....risking a total of about 10 units, but mostly on matchups instead of futures.

BMW Futures (units listed)
Adam Scott 15-1 (.5 units)
Steve Stricker 21-1 (.5 units)
Matt Kuchar 22-1 (.5 units)
Nick Watney 27-1 (.25 units)
Brandt Snedeker 30-1 (.25 units)
Camillo Villegas 40-1 (.25 units)
Zach Johnson 50-1 (.25 units)
Ryan Moore 66-1 (.20 units)
David Toms 70-1 (.20 units)
Marc Leishman 135-1 (.10 units)

Full Tournament Matchups (all 1 unit)
Matt Kuchar -130 vs. Jason Day
Sergio Garcia -105 vs. Hunter Mahan
Marc Leishman -110 vs. Jerry Kelly
Brandt Snedeker +110 vs. Bo van Pelt
Bill Haas -110 vs. Geoff Ogilvy
Adam Scott +130 vs. Luke Donald

Well, I got lucky last week and broke even...my plays sucked but I dropped Dustin Johnson in for a quarter unit at 36-1 and he saved the day for me.  Hope some got in on that as well and not just the top tens I posted that sucked hind tit.  If you tail it is usually better to take all of the plays and not just selected plays even if it is for smaller amounts. 

The TPC Boston is one of my favorite venues.  I was lucky enough to attend 3 of 4 rounds in 2008 and got to know the course very well…it’s a great setup to watch these guys up close, especially in the early rounds.  I won’t go so far as to call it an easy course, but you have to work hard to shoot a big number and if you plan on winning you better be thinking 20-under.  The weather that blew through will only serve to make it easier to attack and score well.

In the eight years this event has been played there have been a handful of guys who have been incredibly consistent, both good and bad, led by Vijay who has two wins and five T11 or better in 7 starts.  The way he has suddenly come alive after having the back procedure that Freddie did is astonishing and he certainly cannot be overlooked on this course.  On the other end of the consistency spectrum is Nick Watney, who has 5 MC’s, a T33, and T46 in his 7 starts.  Both guys are great shot makers and fixtures at the top of the world rankings, but this course apparently doesn’t fit Nick’s eye the way it does Vijay’s.

That theme of past performance will weigh heavily on my selections this week along with current form and a little bit of “who needs it more” in relation to the Fedex standings.  Bonus points for being from Australia – each of them in the field, except Chalmers, has a top 15 finish and every year, expect 2008, there has been a top 15 Aussie, led by Adam Scott who won the inaugural event in 2003 and Geoff Ogilvy who has four top 7 finishes in 6 tries.

Spreading out about ten units this week -

The Deutsche Bank Fave Five Futures
1u - Steve Stricker (17-1)
1u - Adam Scott (18-1)
.5u - Vijay Singh (36-1)
.5u - Brandt Snedeker (46-1)
.5u - Gary Woodland (50-1)

2nd Tier and Longshot Futures
.25u - Jason Day (22-1)
.25u - Matt Kuchar (24-1)
.25u - Phil Mickelson (32-1)
.25u - Camillo Villegas (55-1)
.1u - Keegan Bradley (95-1)
.1u - Jason Dufner (120-1)
.1u - Scott Piercy (140-1)
.1u - Kyle Stanley (160-1)
.1u - Scott Stallings (290-1)

Tournament Matchups (1 unit each)
Adam Scott +130 vs. Luke Donald
Charl Schwartzel +125 vs. Nick Watney
Vijay Singh -120 vs. Charles Howell III
Geoff Ogilvy +130 vs. David Toms
Keegan Bradley +105 vs. Bo van Pelt

The first stop in the Fedex Playoffs each year has been played on 3 different courses in its 4 year history and this year will mark yet another new course - Plainfield C.C.  It would appear that keeping the ball in the fairway off the tee will be the main concern for the field.  The course is not very long and is playing to a par 71 which should offer plenty of scoring chances for those who are able to spin the ball and control distance into the fast, undulating greens.  It actually sounds like a shorter, easier version of Firestone from what I have seen and heard so far.

That being said, with the limited data on the course and zero history to go off, I chose to take a closer look at the 16 events that have comprised the Playoffs since its inception.  What I found was actually very interesting and will be the basis for making my selections this week.

After an exhaustive researching of the past Fedex results I decided to limit my selections for the Barclays to only those around the top 20 in the current standings along with a few outliers who seem to have the right history and momentum coming into this week.  Here are the six guys I feel have the best chance to win (with current odds of course) -

Steve Stricker (14-1)...comes in at #2 in the standings for the 3rd straight year and has easily been the most consistent player throughout this campaign - 14 stroke play events, 13 at T19 or better, including 2 wins.  In the playoffs he has been even better - 16 events, 10 top 10’s including 2 wins, 15 top 25’s, and he is the only player to play all 64 rounds, 39 of them in the 60’s, which is 9 more than the next best guy.

Webb Simpson (28-1)...I normally don’t like going back to the well in B2B weeks, but Webb has been so consistent this year and except for the unexpected MC at the PGA his last 2 months look like this - WIN, T9, T16, T8, T13, T14, and T7, and that doesn’t count either of his 2nd place finishes earlier this year.  He actually reminds me a lot of Stricker and now that he has a win under his belt and some confidence look out.

Adam Scott (16-1)...since the caddy issue and immediate MC at the US Open, Scott has gone T3, T25, WIN, and solo 7 in some deep field events to fly up the standings.  Now that he has figured out the putter issues and has his head straight, he may very well end up being the best in the world the way everyone figured he would years ago.  With this course looking to be a mini version of Firestone, why not take the guy who crushed Firestone 3 weeks ago?

Gary Woodland (55-1)...he reminds me of a slightly more consistent version of 2010 Dustin Johnson in that he hits it a ton but struggles on the greens.  Bottom line with Woodland, if he putts well he scores very well.  With the lack of length on this course he will have short irons into the green on almost every hole and will give himself a ton of birdie chances.  With 6 top 10’s including a win this year, he knows how to get it done, let’s see if he can this week.

Phil Mickelson (28-1)...I was really shocked to see him at #6 in the standings considering it doesn’t seem like he has done much this year, but in typical Phil fashion it has been all or nothing - 1 win, two 2nd’s, and two T9’s to go along with a whole lot of nothing.  As always though, just when you’re ready to dismiss him, he notches another win and considering his playoffs history which includes 2 wins, 5 top 10’s, and 29 of 56 rounds in the 60’s, I wouldn’t be surprised if that happens this week.

Jim Furyk (55-1)...the defending Fedex champ has had it rough this year but his game seems to be rounding into form and you can’t ignore his playoffs history that includes a win, 7 top 10’s in 15 starts, and 30 of 60 rounds in the 60’s overall.  I don’t really think anyone outside of the top 20 is going to win this week but if someone does, I like Furyk who famously missed this one last year because his alarm clock didn’t go off for the pro-am and he was DQ’d from the main event.

The full slate of wagers with units....only risking about 10 units total.

The Barclays Futures
1u - Steve Stricker (14-1)
1u - Adam Scott (16-1)
.5u - Webb Simpson (28-1)
.5u - Phil Mickelson (28-1)
.25u - Gary Woodland (55-1)
.25u - Jim Furyk (55-1)

CYA Futures (Don’t expect a win but just in case)
.25u - Jason Day (25-1)
.25u - Nick Watney (26-1)
.25u - Matt Kuchar (32-1)
.25u - Dustin Johnson (36-1)
.25u - Keegan Bradley (55-1)
.25u - KJ Choi (80-1)

The Barclays TOP TEN Futures
3u - Steve Stricker TOP TEN +152
2u - Adam Scott TOP TEN +205
1u - Jim Furyk TOP TEN +604

Tournament Matchups (1 unit each)
Phil Mickelson +105 vs. David Toms
Gary Woodland +130 vs. Charles Howell III
Padraig Harrington -115 vs. Anthony Kim
Rory Sabbatini -120 vs. Pat Perez
Martin Laird -145 vs. Geoff Ogilvy

I'm keeping it simple this week after having a very nice PGA Championship.

To win(units listed below, risking 4.5 units total)
David Toms (11-1)
Webb Simpson (16-1)
Brandt Snedeker (23-1)

Brendan de Jonge (30-1)
Jason Dufner (40-1)
Chez Reavie (75-1)
Bud Cauley (80-1)

Tommy Gainey (120-1)
Blake Adams (130-1)
Kevin Chappell (180-1)
Matt McQuillan (230-1)
Michael Thompson (250-1)
**1st 3 = 1 unit/next 4 = quarter unit/longshots = tenth unit

Tournament Matchups (1 unit each)
Jason Dufner -135 vs. Trevor Immelman
Blake Adams -135 vs. Vaughn Taylor
\Anthony Kim +135 vs. KT Kim
Michael Thompson -105 vs. Morgan Hoffman
Webb Simpson -110 vs. Charles Howell III

PGA Championship Plays

I was taken to the woodshed last week, but with only a few more events this year that are worth looking at trying I'm going a bit larger this time around and hoping to start a new hot streak this week.

To win (half unit ea)
Rory McIlroy 10-1
Lee Westwood 12-1

To win (quarter unit ea)
Jason Day 23-1
Steve Stricker 25-1
Rickie Fowler 30-1
Nick Watney 35-1
Zach Johnson 40-1
David Toms 50-1
Bubba Watson 55-1
Webb Simpson 70-1

Top Ten (1 unit ea)
Rory McIlroy +130
Lee Westwood +180
Jason Day +260
Zach Johnson +400

Top 20 (1 unit ea)
Steve Stricker -110
Nick Watney +140
David Toms +175
Retief Goosen +300

Top US (half unit ea)
Steve Stricker 11-1
Nick Watney 14-1
Zach Johnson 16-1
David Toms 20-1
Bubba Watson 20-1
Webb Simpson 32-1

Top Country (1 unit ea)
Top Aussie – Jason Day +175
Top S. African – Retief Goosen +400

Props (units listed)
Tiger Woods finishes 41st or worse +125 (1 unit)
Anthony Kim misses cut +130 (2 units)
Jason Day finishes 28th or better -115 (1 unit)
Winners Score UNDER 273.5 +110 (4.5 units)
Total Players UNDER par = 11 or more +110 (3 units)
Wire to Wire Winner = YES +1200 (half unit)

Tournament Matchups (1 unit ea)
Webb Simpson -130 vs. Gary Woodland
David Toms -120 vs. Charl Schwartzel
Nick Watney -130 vs. Dustin Johnson
Jim Furyk -135 vs. Anthony Kim
Frederik Jacobson -105 vs. KJ Choi
Louis Oosthuizen -120 vs. Darren Clarke

Round One 3-Balls (1 unit ea)
F. Molinari +170 vs. Glover/Villegas
Fowler +165 vs. D. Johnson/Sergio
Love III +220 vs. Tiger/Harrington
Oosthuizen +255 vs. Rose/Mahan
Sricker -115 vs. Casey/Jimenez
 

sI'm sitting on a nice little run right now....5 straight winning weeks including picking two winners and having the Sunday back nine lead in the other three.  Almost had a third last week but had two guys finish 1 shot off the playoff.  This week marks the return of Eldrick on a track he has 11 top fives, including 7 wins, in 12 starts so things should be interesting to say the least. 

Putting up about 25 units this week…go big or go home right?

To Win (half unit each/5 units total)
Rory McIlroy 14-1 (just in case)
Steve Stricker 17-1
Tiger Woods 18-1
Dustin Johnson 21-1
Nick Watney 25-1
Gary Woodland 50-1
Bo van Pelt 55-1
Justin Rose 80-1
Peter Hanson 95-1
Alvaro Quiros 150-1

Top Ten (1 unit each/5 units total)
Tiger Woods +200
Lee Westwood +205
Hunter Mahan +250
Bo van Pelt +395
Darren Clarke +870

Top American (1 unit each/3 units total)
Steve Stricker +750
Dustin Johnson +950
Tiger Woods +1000

Other Top Regions (1 unit each/3 units total)
Scandinavian – Peter Hanson +400
S. African – Louis Oosthuizen +550
Spain – Alvaro Quiros +275

Tournament Matchups (1 unit each/8 units total)
Eldrick +115 vs. Lefty
Hunter Mahan +155 vs. Luke Donald
Bo van Pelt -115 vs. Sergio Garcia
Darren Clarke -10 vs. Ernie Els
Bubba Watson -105 vs. KJ Choi
Sean O’Hair +125 vs. YE Yang
Peter Hanson -110 vs. Robert Karlsson
David Toms +105 vs. Frederik Jacobson 

2nd Round Matchups (1 unit each/5 units total)
Dustin Johnson -110 vs. Adam Scott
Bubba Watson +105 vs. Martin Kaymer
Ian Poulter +105 vs. KJ Choi
Louis Oosthuizen +110 vs. Aaron Baddeley
Jim Furyk +115 vs. Robert Karlsson

Adjusted Futures (after R1) - To Win
Adam Scott +415 (1 unit)
Jason Day +560 (1 unit)
Martin Laird +4400 (half unit)
Brandt Snedeker +5000 (half unit)

3rd Round Matchups (1u each/4 units total)
Hunter Mahan +105 vs. Matt Kuchar
Steve Stricker -105 vs. Rory McIlroy
Bo van Pelt _110 vs. Martin Kaymer
Brandt Snedeker -120 vs. Lucas Glover

Adjusted Futures (after R2) - To Win
Rickie Fowler +660 (1 unit)
Ryan Moore +975 (1 unit)

Final Round Matchups (units listed)
Gary Woodland -105 vs. Bo van Pelt (1u)
Nick Watney -110 vs. Matt Kuchar (2u)
Francisco Molinari EV vs. Robert Karlsson (3u)
Bubba Watson -120 vs. Retief Goosen (2u)
Steve Stricker -120 vs. Rory McIlroy (1u)
Rickei Fowler +115 vs. David Toms (3u)
Alvaro Quiros EV vs. Paul Casey (3u)
Heath Slocum +140 vs. Sergio Garcia (2u)
Hennie Otto 200 vs. Tiger Woods (1u)
Martin Laird +155 vs. Luke Donald (2u)

Adjusted Futures (after R3) - To Win
Ryo Ishikawa +805 (1 unit)
Keegan Bradley +1800 (half unit)
Zach Johnson +4800 (half unit)
Adam Scott +255 (2 units)

 

 

 

Last week made 4 straight profitable tourney, but a second straight Sunday letdown.  Let's see if we can get one this week in a big time shootout.  The winner should need at least 17 under and maybe 20 under so expect some fireworks.

I am risking about 20 units between tournament futures, matchups, and first round plays so far but I have a feeling this is the week I hit the matchups and the winner (all lines provided by 5dimes.com) -

To Win (half unit each – 5 units total)
Phil Mickelson 10-1
Charles Howell III 20-1
Webb Simpson 23-1
Gary Woodland 38-1
JB Holmes 46-1
Brian Gay 80-1
Cameron Tringale 120-1
Michael Thompson 210-1
David Mathis 240-1
Matt McQuilan 370-1
**CLOSE AGAIN BUT NADA...LOST 5 UNITS HERE

Tournament Matchups (risk 1 unit on plus odds/to win 1 unit on juiced odds)
David Mathis -145 vs. Arjun Atwal...WINNER +1 UNIT
Phil Mickelson -120 vs. Sergio Garcia...LOSER -1.2 UNITS
Brian Gay -110 vs. Ryan Palmer...WINNER +1 UNIT
Webb Simpson -150 vs. Jeff Overton...WINNER +1 UNIT
Gary Woodland +110 vs. Spencer Levin...WINNER +1.1 UNITS
Michael Thompson +105 vs. Michael Putnam...WINNER +1.05 UNITS
Charles Howell III +105 vs. Sergio Garcia...WINNER +1.05 UNITS
**6-1 FOR A GAIN OF 5 UNITS

Round 1 Matchups (same 1 unit risk-reward as tournament matchups)
Brett Wetterich -110 vs. Ricky Barnes...L -1.1 UNITS
Charles Howell III -140 vs. Jeff Overton...WINNER +1 UNIT
Gary Woodland +105 vs. Spencer Levin...WINNER +1.05 UNITS
Webb Simpson -150 vs. Anthony Kim...WINNER +1 UNIT
Brian Gay +100 vs. Retief Goosen...LOSER +1 UNIT
**3-2 FOR A GAIN OF .95 UNITS

Round 2 Matchups
Michael Thompson EV vs. Marc Leishman (2 units)...WINNER +2 UNITS
John Senden -130 vs. Tommy Gainey (2 units)...PUSH
Gary Woodland -120 vs. Bill Haas (1 unit)...LOSER -1.2 UNITS
Cameron Tringale -120 vs. Carl Petterson (1 unit)...WINNER +1 UNIT
Keegan Bradley +115 vs. DJ Trahan (1 unit)...WINNER +1.15 UNITS
**3-1-1 FOR A GAIN OF 2.95 UNITS

OVERALL
FUTURES...0-10 DOWN 5 UNITS
TOURNAMENT MATCHES...6-1 UP 5 UNITS
ROUND MATCHES...6-3-1 UP 3.9 UNITS

ANOTHER PROFITABLE WEEK....UP 3.9 UNITS OVERALL


 

Coming off a profitable but disappointing Open Championship.  I will take the 4.5 units but would have loved the 20-30 units had Phil or Dustin not collapsed.  Anyway, this week we head to Canada where we get a course that has only been used 3 times in their Open rotation.   Unfortunately for those playing it is also probably the toughest track in that rotation.

In both 1948 and 1966 (par 71) 4-under 280 was good enough to win.  The most recent stop here (2005) featured all of 9 guys who finished under par (par 70) led by Mark Calcavecchia who won with a 5-under 275 total.  Basically that means that in 3 separate events more than 400 guys have teed it up and less than 10 have broken 280…that’s major worthy.  That doesn’t figure to change this week considering the course will feature 25 yard wide landing areas guarded by 4”+ rough and greens that make concrete feel like a feather bed.  If the rain stays away this could get ugly quickly.

I’m keeping things pretty simple this week and spreading out about 15 units of risk with these –

To Win (1 unit ea)
Luke Donald 7-1
Matt Kuchar 11-1
Charl Schwartzel 18-1

To Win (half unit ea)
Ryan Moore 23-1
Bo van Pelt 34-1

To Win (quarter unit ea)
Spencer Levin 55-1
Chez Reavie 90-1
Arjun Atwal 95-1
Kevin Chappell 145-1

Top Canadian (1 unit)
Adam Hadwin 9-1 EASY WINNER +9 UNITS

**Bo blew it so I lost 5 units on the To Win bets and won 9 units on Hadwin for a total of +4 UNITS

Tournament Matchups (risk 1 unit ea)
Atwal +115 vs. Merrick
Moore -145 vs. A. Kim
Kuchar -135 vs. Fowler
Kuchar -155 vs. Mahan
Donald -140 vs. Fowler
Cauley +110 vs. Cantlay
Chappell +105 vs. Leonard
Reavie -120 vs. Steele

**4-4 overall for a loss of .72 units (the juice on Kuchar killed me)

Round 1 Matchups (risk 1 unit ea)
Carl Petterson -105 vs. Jim Furyk...PUSH
John Rollins -115 vs. Chad Campbell...LOSER -1 UNIT
**0-1-1 FOR A LOSS OF 1 UNIT TOTAL

Round 2 Matchups (risk 1 unit ea)
Schwartzel +105 vs. Fowler
Cauley -130 vs. Adams

**2-0 FOR A GAIN OF 1.82 UNITS

To Win - Updated after Round 1 (half unit)
Bud Cauley 40-1

**FADED AT THE END...-.5 UNITS

OVERALL P/L FOR THE TOURNEY = +3.6 UNITS...IF ONLY BO COULD HAVE HELD ON